Lilly Deepens AI Push in Obesity Drug Race

US drugmaker expands Nimbus alliance to pursue oral therapy as analysts forecast $100bn market for weight-loss medicines

24 Feb 2026

Eli Lilly has expanded its partnership with Nimbus Therapeutics to develop a next-generation oral treatment for obesity, intensifying competition in a fast-growing market for weight-loss drugs.

The agreement, announced on January 6, will see Nimbus use its artificial intelligence-based drug discovery platform to design small-molecule compounds suitable for use as a pill. Lilly will lead clinical development and global commercialisation. Nimbus is eligible for up to $1.3bn in milestone payments, in addition to royalties if a product reaches the market.

Lilly already markets leading injectable GLP-1 therapies for diabetes and obesity, medicines that have reshaped treatment standards and driven strong revenue growth. An oral option could widen access by offering greater convenience for patients and easing distribution and manufacturing constraints associated with injections.

Analysts expect the global obesity drug market to exceed $100bn within the next decade, supported by rising obesity rates, broader insurance coverage and continued innovation. While injectable treatments from Lilly and Denmark’s Novo Nordisk dominate current sales, drugmakers are increasingly investing in pills that could complement or compete with established products.

Developing an effective oral therapy presents scientific challenges. Any new pill must match the safety and weight-loss results of leading injectable drugs while meeting regulatory standards and navigating pricing pressures, particularly in the US. Several companies are advancing candidates, but success rates in drug development remain uncertain.

The expanded Lilly and Nimbus collaboration also reflects a broader shift in the pharmaceutical industry. Large drugmakers are forming alliances with biotechnology groups that use advanced computing and machine learning tools to speed up early-stage research and identify promising compounds more efficiently.

For Lilly, the partnership reinforces its focus on metabolic disease, an area that has become central to its growth strategy. Whether oral treatments can achieve the same clinical impact as injections will shape the next phase of competition in obesity care, as companies seek to secure position in one of the industry’s most lucrative segments.